A new climate report has sounded the alarm that the world could exhaust its remaining carbon budget for staying below 1.5°C of warming as early as 2027, presenting African nations with an impossible dilemma between development needs and climate action.
The study published in Earth System Science Data by over 60 scientists from 17 countries reveals that at current emission rates, humanity has just three years left before blowing past the Paris Agreement's safer climate threshold.
This narrow window comes as Africa faces mounting pressure to transition to clean energy while still addressing urgent development priorities.
Though Africa contributes less than 4% of global emissions, the continent stands to suffer most from the accelerating climate crisis.
The report shows Earth's Energy Imbalance, the excess heat trapped by greenhouse gases, has more than doubled since 1975, fueling extreme droughts in the Horn of Africa, catastrophic cyclones in the south, and rising sea levels threatening coastal cities.
The shrinking carbon budget leaves little room for African nations to expand energy access and infrastructure.
Over 600 million Africans still lack electricity, while the continent's population is projected to double by 2050.
The report warns that current emission trajectories could force painful choices between powering hospitals and schools or meeting climate commitments.
While the findings are dire, scientists note that rapid global emission cuts could still halve warming rates within 20 years.
For Africa, this means urgent investments in renewable energy, climate-smart agriculture and early warning systems.
As the report emphasizes, this decade represents the last chance to avert catastrophic warming while pursuing equitable development.
The study lands as African leaders prepare for COP28, where they are expected to demand greater climate financing from high-emitting nations.